Mobile Home Sales in Cool Spring, SC

S​pring temperatures may be stubbornly cool in parts of the West, but should recover nicely by May over much of the rest of the country.

The West Coast, California and the Desert Southwest may skew cooler than average from April through June, according to an outlook released Thursday by Atmospheric G2 and The Weather Company, an IBM Business.

Meanwhile, a generally warmer-than-average April through June is forecast from the Plains across the South and Midwest into the mid-Atlantic states.

This outlook is an overall trend for April through June. Typical of any spring, there will be times when areas are warmer or colder than the map above.

Here's a look at the month-by-month outlook and what is driving this forecast.

T​his month has trended colder in much of the West, but a bit warmer in parts of the Great Lakes and East Coast than the previous outlook.

I​n general, areas from the Pacific Northwest and Northern California to the upper Mississippi Valley could skew at least slightly cooler than average in April. The Northwest, northern Rockies and northern High Plains are expected to be the coldest relative to average in April.

Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2, said there are several factors contributing to this lingering western chill in April, including an impressively heavy snowpack that can reflect more of the sun's energy.

"​We are not fighting the entrenched pattern (from March) for April," Crawford said.

As has been the case for much of the winter, much of the South and East is expected to at least skew milder than usual. Areas from central Texas to Florida to the mid-Atlantic are forecast to be farthest above average in April.

You may notice some significant changes in May, compared to April.

F​irst, most of the nation from the Pacific Northwest and Rockies eastward is expected to at least skew warmer than average in May. Areas from the Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and Southeast are likely to have a warm May. The Great Lakes and Northeast are expected to be farthest above average.

O​nly parts of the Desert Southwest and California may skew slightly cooler than average.

June's outlook is interesting in a couple of ways.

F​irst, much of the country is expected to be at least somewhat hotter than average, particularly from the Southeast to the Northern Rockies. The area most likely to experience a hot June is the Northern Plains, including some areas that have been repeatedly hit by heavy snow from last fall through early spring.

Parts of the Northeast, particularly in New England, may be cooler than usual in June.

S​ome cooler-than-average weather might also linger in parts of the Southwest and Southern California.

Polar Vortex

Y​es, the polar vortex might still have an influence into April.

T​his whirling cone of low pressure in the stratosphere, far above where most of our weather occurs, weakened due to a sharp warming known as a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event in February.

This matters because disruptions in the polar vortex can sometimes set up blocking patterns weeks later that unleash more widespread cold air deeper into the U.S.

T​hat has happened in March, with at least more periodic intrusions of colder air into the country, particularly in the West.

C​rawford noted the influence of an SSW typically lasts for a couple of months, so it's possible that the blocking patterns bringing more cold air into at least parts of the country could linger into April.

La Niña Is Gone

A​nother factor in play this spring is one that has vanished.

I​n early March, NOAA declared that the rare three-year La Niña finally ended.

La Niña is the periodic cooling of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean, and the interaction of this cooler-than-average water with the atmosphere can affect weather conditions around the globe.

E​xamining previous springs this century during which La Niña ended, Crawford found April was chilly along the West Coast but warm from the Rockies into the nation's midsection and South.

H​e also noted the atmosphere usually takes time to respond to the vanished La Niña, meaning the stubborn jet stream could still deliver cool, wet weather to the West Coast, including California, in April.

E​l Niño Ahead?

A​s of the time this article was published in mid-March, increasing model guidance was forecasting an El Niño to develop possibly as soon as this summer.

(​READ: El Niño May Be Ahead)

The opposite of La Niña, an El Niño is the periodic warming of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean that can also influence weather patterns over the globe.

I​f this El Niño develops sooner, it could lead to a cooler summer in parts of the Midwest and Northeast beginning as soon as June, according to Crawford.

F​or more on the potential impacts of an El Niño on both summer temperatures and rainfall, become a premium subscriber and check out our exclusive, in-depth early analysis of the summer outlook.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

GREENVILLE, S.C. —

As we gear up for the possibility of record-breaking high temperatures on Thursday, you may be wondering if this means an early spring or is this what is commonly known as a “fake spring” for the Carolinas?

(More on those possible record breaking highs in the video above)

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Well, to answer that question, we have to look at current weather trends and, more importantly, where those trends are heading.

Right now, we are in a La Nina weather pattern, which for the southeast typically means warmer and dryer than average.

But we are starting a transition to a “neutral” weather pattern that should take hold completely by April through the early summer. This type of pattern doesn’t see a trend one way or the other, but there are hints of an El Nino weather pattern emerging for late summer, which is usually hotter and wetter than average, but that remains to be seen.

As we watch the infamous cherry blossom indicator tree in Washington, D.C., start blooming weeks earlier than normal, there are certainly signs that spring is trying for an early start.

Pollen counts have been abnormally high throughout the Carolinas, and there’s no sign of that changing to much in the coming week.

Got allergies? SC doctors say allergy season came early, and could last longer than normal

The Climate Prediction Center, which looks at weather trends around the world, has our area warmer and perhaps slightly wetter than average through June. There is less certainty for July through August regarding rainfall, but seem to swing much warmer than average heading into the end of summer.

So, as we circle back to answer the original question of, “Are we having an early spring”? The answer is yes, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see cold snaps or big cool downs between now and when spring officially begins on March 20.

After all, the average high this time of year is still in the 50s, and there are no indicators to show we won’t see cooler days ahead from time to time.

So much for winter.

Spring is just around the corner for South Carolina, with the official start of the season set for March 20 in the northern hemisphere this year. Soon trees and flowers will begin to bloom, some animals will emerge from hibernation and for many residents, the inevitable spring cleaning will start.

But after months of a fairly standard winter, what kind of weather can the Palmetto State expect for spring this year?

According to the Farmer’s Almanac, plan for rain — lots of it.

The Farmer’s Almanac predicts near normal temperatures, but “tons of showers” in South Carolina this spring. There should also be frequent heavy-to-severe thunderstorms in South Carolina and the rest of the Southeast.

Overall, the Farmer’s Almanac expects a wet spring with relatively cool temperatures for most places in the U.S., the exception being the Southwest, where temperatures should rise quickly.

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The extended forecast from Farmer’s Almanac says to expect rain and showers on March 20, followed by more showers across the Carolinas the following week.

Expect scattered showers in early April. However, Farmer’s Almanac notes that the weather should be dry and pleasant for Easter on April 9 and for much of the Masters Tournament in nearby Augusta, which will run from April 6-9 this year.

South Carolina should see continued showers and thunderstorms through much of May.

Founded in 1818, the Farmers’ Almanac uses a secret formula that includes components such as “sunspot activity, tidal action, the position of the planet,” to predict long-range weather forecasts. The forecasts are typically made two years in advance. Fans of the Farmers’ Almanac have, over the years, calculated that the predictions are accurate 80-85% of the time.

The National Weather Service currently has a somewhat different spring outlook for South Carolina than what Farmer’s Almanac predicts.

According to the NWS Climate Prediction Center, South Carolina has a 40% to 50% chance of above average temperatures in March and April. The NWS also predicts equal chances of above or below average rainfall for the state in March and April.

Peaches in the supermarket are a sure sign of spring and summer, but this year, that sign may be harder to find and a lot more expensive. A mild winter in the Southeast followed by frost in the early spring decimated a large percentage of the Georgia and South Carolina peach crop, the No. 2 and 3 producers in the U.S.

"We probably have about a 40-percent crop," Jake Carter, owner of Southern Belle Farm, told FOX 5 Atlanta. The McDonough, Georgia, farm has been in his family for five generations.

Supermarket Guru Phil Lempert said that about 50% of the peach crop across Georgia was destroyed. He fears that the quality of the fruit, taste, flavor and size will be less than normal years for the survivors.

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(Dustin Chambers/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Mild winter and frost: A deadly combo for peaches

Peaches need chill time, hundreds of hours below 45 degrees, to produce flowers and fruit. After record cold in December, the Southeast winter was very mild.

Early warmth coaxed out some blossoms but then came a couple of March cold snaps. When a peach is in bloom, a few degrees below freezing can mean a 10% to 90% loss, according to the Clemson Cooperative Extension office.

"The temperatures fluctuated. It got down as low as 27 degrees. It will be a supply and demand issue," Carter told FOX 5.

"So, our early varieties usually come in around Memorial Day. A lot of those have been hit," he continued. "We are looking at the middle part of June before the peaches start coming in, and again it’s not to say there are no peaches down there. There’s just very few."

WILL THE LACK OF COLD WEATHER IMPACT THE PEACH HARVEST?

(Robert Alexander / Getty Images)

Tough year for California peaches

Top U.S. producer California won’t be able to fill the gap either. The parade of atmospheric river storms pummeled the state with record rainfall that has yet to drain. Now, record snowpack is melting and flooding fields.

"Peaches don’t like to have their feet wet, so drainage is important," Dario Chavez, an associate professor at UGA who specializes in peach physiology and breeding, told FOX Weather over the winter about good yields requiring dry roots.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that California accounted for 56% of the country’s production in 2017.

CALIFORNIA SCENES SHOWING DEVASTATION FROM FLOODING, SINKHOLES AMID BARRAGE OF ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS

( David Paul Morris/Bloomberg / Getty Images)

"U.S. production is expected to drop over 100,000 tons to 605,000 due to late winter and early spring freezes impacting crops in the top three growing states of California, South Carolina, and Georgia," Lempert said.

He said that shoppers are already seeing a shortage of fresh peaches in stores. Those shortages and price hikes will continue through the summer. Look for canned and processed peach prices to rise around the winter holidays.

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(Fairfax Media / Getty Images)

Looking for exports

"Reduced supplies are anticipated to pressure exports lower to 70,000 tons, while imports are up to 35,000 tons, mostly from Chile where output is up," Lempert added.

China, producing 45% of the U.S.’s peaches, according to Clemson Extension, may cut back on exports to America, though.

"We can expect more imports. China and Russia are the largest sources, but the war is interfering with the exports from Russia and politics with China may reduce our ability to import," Lempert suggested.

CALIFORNIA CROPS LOST AFTER FLOODS; HOW MUCH OF THE US WILL FEEL THE SHORTAGE?

(Amy Toensing/National Geographic / Getty Images)

U.S. peach consumption is down, which may ease some of the pain, he said. In 2000, the per capita consumption was 5.3 pounds per year. By 2021, it dropped to 2.38 pounds per year and continues to decline.

"So, the shortages won't be as bad as they would have been 20 years ago,"Lempert said. "The problem for peach lovers is that this year they will be much more expensive, have less availability and most likely not as tasty or large."

Spring has sprung in South Carolina, and many residents are enjoying the wide variety of flowers and plants blooming in gardens and natural areas. But as the winters have increasingly warmed, gardeners have had to change their practices to allow native flowers and plants to thrive here.

The USDA’s plant hardiness zones map shifted dramatically in South Carolina from 1990 to 2012. The zones represent the lowest winter temperatures of each region. In the past few decades, winters simply have been hotter across the nation.

Most of South Carolina’s plants still can grow despite the climbing winter temperatures. But growers are taking extra precautions to manage gardening conditions.

“There are plants that used to be able to grow in James Island that no longer can, or are not as reliable,” said Charleston County’s Sharleen Johnson, owner of Native Plants to the People. “(They) survive for a few years and then they’ll die.”

The owner of One Hubcap Farm, which specializes in growing flowers in northern Richland County, has been learning how to deal with the warmer winters and their cold snaps for her entire career.

“This whole flower thing is a learning curve,” said Mary Ann Adams, who opened her commercial farm in 2019. “I just have learned to really look at the weather and to see what’s coming and consider the wind and the rain and all these other things, too. It is a really pretty complicated thing.”

Flowers can be especially fickle when it comes to unexpected changes in the weather. For Adams, this has meant learning to keep back-up seedlings in her home, planting cover crops in the winter, and diversifying her flowers as much as possible.

“If one crop dies, it’s not the end of the world,” said Adams “I mean, it’s still a pain.”

She also said she learned some lessons from last year’s chill when her snapdragons and larkspurs matured far too quickly before the cool temperatures returned. They got too large to cover, and the frost took out many of the buds. This year she planted them nearly two months later and is seeing better results.

Adams said her one big takeaway from her experience has been patience. She learned that even if it seems warm enough to plant early in the year, it’s better to wait until there is as little chance of frost as possible.

For home gardeners with less experience, that can be a very difficult balance to strike, especially when they are less in tune with how the weather might turn.

Plant shops that sell to South Carolina gardeners are changing their recommendations to customers based on these weather conditions.

“I’m just advising people if you’re selecting a cultivar or a variety now of blueberry, of blackberry, of anything that has a range in its bloom time, choose medium or late,” Johnson said. “Don’t choose early. It sounds great to have early ones, but you’re not reliably going to get it anymore.”

Johnson explained that even with warmer winters, there is also greater variability in temperature. That means flowers that bloom early in the warm winter weather will likely die during a late frost.

Bob Askins, president of the South Carolina Native Plant Society’s Midlands Chapter, is also advising gardeners to choose plants that grow farther south, as growing conditions here start resembling those in warmer regions.

“We’re telling people that if they’re selecting plants, if you can’t find anything that’s truly local to your region, maybe you might want to choose things from somewhere slightly south,” Askins said. “You might want to get something from Georgia or Florida instead of from Virginia or Pennsylvania.”

For native plant enthusiasts, that advice can be at odds with the traditional stance on native plants.

“A lot of native plant people are hyper local, so they want things like right in this specific area,” Askins said. “… But some of that is beginning to change. We worry about it a little bit. … You run the risk of introducing new genetic strains, … and so you can potentially get unintended consequences.”

Herrick Brown, a casual gardener and curator at the University of South Carolina’s A. C. Moore Herbarium, further explained the need to source plants from farther south.

“You have this climate envelope,” Brown said. “ … If you’re within the bounds of a certain latitude, north-south range or whatever, you’re growing something that’s adapted for the sort of seasonal extremes that are normally experienced within those latitudes. As temperatures rise, that sort of envelope of suitable environmental conditions is moving northward.”

For his own garden, Brown said he is intentional about creating the right microclimate. He hopes that will mitigate the effects of more variable weather.

On “north-facing slopes or (the) north side of your house, you have a shaded environment, so you can grow cooler adapted species there that can survive the hot summers,” Brown said.

“More Mediterranean-type things, you would want to grow on the south side of your house or a south-facing slope because they need that full sun exposure and just brutal summer heat,” he said.

The new temperature patterns have not dramatically changed what kinds of plants gardeners can grow.

But some avid gardeners fear that a few plants could get pushed out of the region entirely. Then there’s the chance that less-desirable, warmer-adapted plants could take hold, Askins said.

“One of the problems with that though is you always run the risk of having something that’s going to become the next worst thing that was ever,” Brown said. “The next kudzu.”